Determining vaccine efficacy in individuals is a concern when managing the spread of a virus. In this study pre-vaccination levels of a panel of inflammation factors were measured in order to predict the efficacy of the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines by measuring neutralization percentages, SARS-CoV-2 antibody concentrations, and inflammation factors over the course of ten weeks after the initial dose of the mRNA vaccine. Blood and stool samples were collected at a time point before administration of the vaccine (pre-vaccination) and in 2-week intervals after the administration of the first dose (post-vaccination). A cohort of 12 adults (n=12) were separated into two groups, high neutralization ability (n=6) and low neutralization ability (n=6), based on the neutralization percentages measured from samples provided ten weeks post-vaccination. Bivariate correlation analysis was performed to measure correlation between the panel of inflammation factors measured from pre-vaccination samples and neutralization ability at ten weeks post-vaccination. Correlation analysis indicates a significant (P=0.0321) inverse relationship (R =−0.5269) between HMGB-1 concentrations and neutralization ability at time points ten weeks post-vaccination. Unpaired t-test between the high and low neutralization groups and HMGB-1 concentrations taken pre-vaccination are also significantly different (P<0.001). Preliminary results indicate that HMGB-1 is a promising biomarker in predicting SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine efficacy.

This study was supported in part by funding provided by Hawaii Community Foundation under award 20HCF-101573. The comments expressed in this report are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not represent the official view of the Hawaii Community Foundation.

This content is only available via PDF.