Determining vaccine efficacy in individuals is a concern when managing the spread of a virus. In this study pre-vaccination levels of a panel of inflammation factors were measured in order to predict the efficacy of the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines by measuring neutralization percentages, SARS-CoV-2 antibody concentrations, and inflammation factors over the course of ten weeks after the initial dose of the mRNA vaccine. Blood and stool samples were collected at a time point before administration of the vaccine (pre-vaccination) and in 2-week intervals after the administration of the first dose (post-vaccination). A cohort of 12 adults (n=12) were separated into two groups, high neutralization ability (n=6) and low neutralization ability (n=6), based on the neutralization percentages measured from samples provided ten weeks post-vaccination. Bivariate correlation analysis was performed to measure correlation between the panel of inflammation factors measured from pre-vaccination samples and neutralization ability at ten weeks post-vaccination. Correlation analysis indicates a significant (P=0.0321) inverse relationship (R =−0.5269) between HMGB-1 concentrations and neutralization ability at time points ten weeks post-vaccination. Unpaired t-test between the high and low neutralization groups and HMGB-1 concentrations taken pre-vaccination are also significantly different (P<0.001). Preliminary results indicate that HMGB-1 is a promising biomarker in predicting SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine efficacy.

This study was supported in part by funding provided by Hawaii Community Foundation under award 20HCF-101573. The comments expressed in this report are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not represent the official view of the Hawaii Community Foundation.